Saudi Arabia is charting a course that puts economic and security interests first, even if that is at odds with the West.
Sunday’s decision to slash crude output as part of the OPEC+ oil producers’ group in coordination with Russia came as a surprise to markets, rankled Washington and puts $100 a barrel on the horizon as a global economic downturn looms.
At home, Saudi commentators assert that Riyadh’s course has been the right one all along. It comes after a similar move last fall despite US pleas to pump more crude.
Saudi officials say that decision eventually stabilized oil prices, proving it wasn’t political. The overall message from an emboldened kingdom to the West is: We told you so.
That’s still a challenge to US President Joe Biden, who initially shunned Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman and called the kingdom a pariah over the 2018 murder by Saudi agents of Washington Post columnist Jamal Khashoggi. Biden reversed that policy last year in a bid to secure an easing of oil prices, to no avail.
Now, with the crude price slumping to a 15-month low in late March, the crown prince’s latest production cut also reflects economic realities for the kingdom.
The de facto ruler has multi-billion-dollar plans to overhaul Saudi Arabia, and that’s another driving factor behind his latest foreign policy moves.
He’s been reaching out to former foe Iran to ease regional strife and protect his growth plans, even sidelining the US in favor of its No. 1 rival China to do so. He’s also moving toward embracing Syria’s pariah leader along with other Arab states, despite US and European sanctions.
That said, the Saudis, who rely on the US for security, are still unwilling to pursue a complete breach with Washington.
But Riyadh’s latest oil gambit underscores Saudi Arabia’s growing geopolitical influence as a fossil fuel superpower. Its leadership knows it must seize the moment while that clout lasts. — Sylvia Westall